Experts Show No Vote Fraud Occurred in Bolivia’s October Election

Nov. 25, 2019 (EIRNS)—Analysis of the vote count of Bolivia’s Oct. 20 Presidential election by two independent organizations debunks the claim that there was vote fraud, as the Organization of American States (OAS) insisted—thereby laying the basis for the demand for a vote audit and the subsequent forced resignation of President Evo Morales—Página 12 reported Nov. 24.

Both studies question the role of the OAS and its vote audit process, overseen by Secretary General Luis Almagro. The entire OAS conclusion that vote fraud had occurred was based on the “quick count” provisional results using a computerized system known by the acronym TREP. When the TREP count was temporarily interrupted on Oct. 20, and resumed to announce that Morales had won by more than 10%, avoiding a runoff, the OAS immediately screamed fraud—along with the local opposition.

Walter R. Mebane, Jr., a Research Professor at the University of Michigan’s Center for Political Studies, and renowned as an international vote fraud expert, observed in his study that even if there were fraudulent votes in the election, these “were not decisive for the result.” There were statistical irregularities that might suggest fraud only in 274 of the 34,551 polling stations, he said, but these patterns didn’t differ significantly from other international elections he had evaluated. “Even removing the fraudulent votes,” Morales’s MAS party “obtained an advantage above 10%,” he concluded.

A second study, conducted by the Center for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), a Washington, D.C.-based thinktank, states that neither the OAS mission nor any other party “has demonstrated that there were widespread systematic irregularities in the election of Oct. 20, 2019.” To the OAS charge that an interruption in the TREP count allowed government election officials to tamper with the vote, CEPR countered that neither the quick count nor the official count exhibits significant changes in voting trends in the final results. The quick count was interrupted when 83.85% of the votes where in, confirming a Morales win. The binding, official count, was never stopped.