World Food Price Index Up 31% Since October 2020; World Grains Stocks Are Going Down

Nov. 5, 2021 (EIRNS)—The UN Food and Agriculture Organization Food Price Index (FFPI) for October is 31.3% higher than it was at same time in 2020. It has risen for three months straight, and there was a 3.9% jump from September to October. The FAO Index has five Index components—cereals, edible oils, dairy, meat and sugar—of commodities in world trade. The rise in prices of cereals and vegetable oils gave the biggest kick to the Index increase.

The prospects are grim for cereals shortages to worsen. World stocks of grains have been falling for four years straight, while grains production has been only creeping upward in recent years. The volume of production is way below world food security needs.

Details are in the Nov. 4 FAO World Food Situation: Cereal Supply and Demand Brief. The estimate for total world grains (cereals) production in the 2021-2022 crop year is 2.793 million metric tons, which is 0.8% higher than the last crop year, but the hyperinflation and shortages can drag that down rapidly. From fuel to fertilizer, inputs are scarce and soaring in price.

By the metric of sufficient grains harvest for food security for all, the total yearly production needs to be in the range of 4.7 mmt.