RAND Corp Demands, No Long War With Russia, We Have To Focus on China!

Jan. 29, 2023, 2022 (EIRNS)—A newly released study from the Rand Corporation, “Avoiding a Long War: U.S. Policy and the Trajectory of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict,” assesses that an extended conflict in Ukraine would not benefit the U.S.: “U.S. interests would be best served by avoiding a protracted conflict. The costs and risks of a long war in Ukraine are significant and outweigh the possible benefits of such a trajectory for the United States.”

Tables 3 and 4 consider that the “benefits” of a protracted war are at most moderate (weakening Russia at this point provides diminishing returns) while the “costs” are highly significant, including the threat of nuclear war.

But what most worries these Rand creeps is that excess focus on Ukraine diverts attention from the second front in the war against a new paradigm: China.

“Beyond the potential for Russian gains and the economic consequences for Ukraine, Europe, and the world, a long war would also have consequences for U.S. foreign policy,” they write. “The U.S. ability to focus on its other global priorities—particularly, competition with China—will remain constrained as long as the war is absorbing senior policymakers’ time and U.S. military resources.”

“A longer war that increases Russia’s dependence could provide China advantages in its competition with the United States,” they worry, writes the summary by Moon of Alabama.

At least some in Washington acknowledge the threat that NATO-Russia warfare, including nuclear war, “poses challenges” as they delicately put it “for the United States, Ukraine, and the rest of the world.”